Attacks on US troops resumed after the Israel-Hamas truce ended
Polygraph | Newsletter n°234 | 1 February 2024
Situation
US troops are now dying because of Biden’s Israel policy. Three Army reservists were killed in a recent attack on an American base1 on the Syria-Jordan border by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The Iran-backed group’s intent was to impose costs on the US for its support for Israel’s assault on Gaza: “If the US keeps supporting Israel, there will be escalations. All the US interests in the region are legitimate targets and we don’t care about US threats to respond,” the group said. Joe Biden vowed to respond, presumably militarily, even though there are no good military options. Hawkish lawmakers in Washington are pushing Biden to bomb Iran.
Analysis
The politicians who most often wax poetic about “our troops” tend to be the ones most willing to put them in harm’s way. After a surge in attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria in mid-October, Biden deployed 300 additional troops to the region in late October. The attacks increased.
The only break was during the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in late November. During this seven-day pause, deployed personnel in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan were attacked just once. Outside of the truce, US troops have been attacked once every 14 hours, on average. Biden still refuses to call for a ceasefire.2
^Alt text for screen readers: Attacks on U.S. troops stopped almost entirely during the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. This column chart displays the average daily attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. Outside of the ceasefire, there were 1.67 attacks per day. During the ceasefire, there were 0.14. Data via author’s analysis of statements by U.S. government officials. Range for this analysis was October 17, 2023 through January 29, 2024. Full analysis at stephen semler dot substack dot com.
-Stephen (@stephensemler; stephen@securityreform.org). Follow me on Bluesky.
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The base is reportedly “used largely by troops involved in the advise-and-assist mission for Jordanian forces.” The purpose of the base depends on who you ask (answers vary even within the Biden administration).
In addition to demanding a ceasefire, Biden could also withdraw US troops from these countries. Both these are very good options that could be accomplished with a phone call.