The IDF has freed just eight hostages in the past year
Polygraph | Newsletter n°270 | 7 Oct 2024
*Read the new report I co-authored with the Costs of War project (summary/paper): https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/papers/2024/USspendingIsrael
-Costs of War project’s tweet thread: https://x.com/CostsOfWar/status/1843273413156282614
-AP’s coverage: https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-us-military-spending-8e6e5033f7a1334bf6e35f86e7040e14
*Many thanks to Lindsay S. and Alex T. for becoming Polygraph’s latest paid subscribers! Support my work by joining them:
The Israeli hostages
A year ago to the day, Hamas held 255 hostages — 251 were kidnapped during the October 7 massacre while four had been held in Gaza since 2014 (two are bodies of IDF troops). The IDF has rescued just eight of them over the past year. Eight.
By my count, the IDF has killed at least as many Israeli hostages as it’s rescued during the same stretch. Hamas claims several times more, which seems plausible considering how many freed hostages reported almost being killed in Israeli airstrikes. But here are the cases from which I drew my (very conservative) estimate:1
Last month, Israel admitted there is a “high probability” that an IDF airstrike targeting Hamas brigade chief Ahmed al-Ghandour killed three Israeli hostages (two soldiers and one civilian) in November. Initially, the IDF told the hostages’ families that they were killed by Hamas, while Hamas said they were killed in an Israeli airstrike.
In early December, a failed rescue attempt resulted in the death of one Israeli hostage. The IDF initially denied Hamas’s claim that the hostage was killed in the botched rescue. Hamas says the hostage was killed by friendly fire; Israel hasn’t commented one way or the other.
In mid-December, three Israeli hostages briefly escaped captivity and approached Israeli troops in broad daylight with their hands up, holding a white flag, and calling for help in Hebrew. Israeli troops promptly shot them all dead.
In February, an IDF investigation found that one Israeli hostage was likely killed in an IDF airstrike in January.
In June, the IDF announced that four more hostages were dead, possibly from IDF fire. The IDF said they were killed months before in Khan Younis, a place Israel had just spent the last months completely flattening. In March, three of the aforementioned hostages were named explicitly by Hamas as three of seven bodies they could identify after an Israeli airstrike.
There remain 101 hostages in Gaza. Of the original 255, eight have been freed through force, 109 freed through diplomacy (Hamas released four hostages in October and 105 in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in late November), and 37 have been found dead. Israeli leaders continue rejecting ceasefire deals. The Biden-Harris administration keeps letting them.
The Palestinian hostages
By the time Hamas abducted 251 hostages last year, there were already 1,319 Palestinians from the occupied territories held in Israel as “administrative detainees.” In administrative detention, you’re held indefinitely without charge or trial or evidence, not knowing if or when you’ll be released — i.e., you’re a hostage.
The number of administrative detainees (hostages) Israel held before the October 7 attack was already at a 30-year high, but Israel really started loading up hostages in retaliation for the attack and for use as bargaining chips in a potential prisoner swap. Many of the Palestinian prisoners released as part of the temporary ceasefire/hostage release deal in late November were administrative detainees.
While hostage rescue hasn’t been a priority for the Israelis (you don’t kill as many hostages as you rescue if it is), they have prioritized taking Palestinians hostage. Israel now holds 2,079 more Palestinians in administrative detention than it did a year ago. Its total “security” prisoner population — of which administrative detainees are a part — has more than doubled, and now exceeds 10,000 (more on this later).
^Alt text for screen readers: Israel is still holding more hostages than Hamas. This chart compares the number of hostages held by Hamas versus the number held by Israel as administrative detainees. On October 7, 2023, Hamas held 255 Israelis hostage. Now it holds 101. On October 7, 2023, Israel held 1,319 Palestinians hostage. Now it holds 3,398. Administrative detainees are held indefinitely without charge or trial. Figures as of October 2024. Data: Israel Prison Service, HaMoked, Israeli media. More: stephensemler.com
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-Stephen (Follow me on Instagram, Twitter, and Bluesky)
Note: I’m only looking at the 255 hostages actually held in Gaza, which means I’m excluding the Israeli hostages killed by Israeli forces en route to Gaza last October 7, of which there were, according to Israeli media, many.